Growing Sales 62% by Understanding Customer Demand

How a food products supplier moved beyond historical forecasting to uncover unmet demand and create more predictable production.

The Business Challenge

A food products supplier was losing 5–10% of sales annually in its mom-and-pop bakery segment over the past three years. Bakeries often called at the last minute for products that were out of stock. Sales initially wanted better forecasting for production and proposed tracking lost sales.

What We Discovered

Historical orders did not fully represent actual demand. We needed to understand how quickly each bakery used products and how customer characteristics shaped purchasing patterns. Different bakery types, product mixes, and holiday calendars could help explain when and why demand changed.

How We Changed the Operating Model

We shifted the focus from forecasting orders to understanding customer consumption in order to get better control of demand. The call center contacted customers to establish product usage rates and gather relevant information about their businesses. These insights would inform replenishment, holiday planning, and recommendations for new products, while providing production with a more dependable view of demand.

Business Results

Sales increased 62%, substantially outperforming the 5–10% improvement initially expected from a forecasting-oriented approach. Growth came from higher sales to existing customers, new product sales, recovered business, and new customers. Production gained better demand predictability for scheduling, and product development gained a more effective path to introducing new offerings.

Why It Matters

The business did not merely need a better prediction of what customers might order. It needed a different way to understand and influence demand. Aligning customer interactions, sales, product development, and production created value across functions.